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April 28, 2023 Charlie Turner

Is refining dead?

Markets & Supply
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Reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated 

If I had a quarter for every time someone told me that “oil is dead” or that the internal combustion engine will be obsolete in “just a few years”, I could probably buy a new car.

Are liquid fuels dying? The data tells a very different story.

The graph below is from EIA — the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It shows projected U.S. energy consumption from now until 2050. This is not a biased source. This data is collected, analyzed and charted by some of the smartest energy nerds in the world.

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Us Energy Consumption graph

 

The data shows that demand for petroleum-based liquid fuels will remain strong — and in fact grow — through at least 2050.

What about the rest of the world?

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Global Oil Demand

 

Another EIA chart. Globally, EIA expects liquid fuel demand to remain strong and — just like in the U.S. — grow between now and 2050.

What does this mean?

It means that liquid fuel demand will continue to grow for decades. It means that a growing population and strong economy runs on liquid fuels. It means that, despite misinformed rhetoric, the U.S. refining industry is and will continue to be an economic powerhouse and a backbone of global energy security.

So next time you hear a colleague, friend, family member or politician suggest that our industry is on the way out, show them these charts or forward them this email.

- Charlie and the AFPM EMPOWER Team

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